Latest Insights
-
The policy has been announced and the expected 50bps hike has occurred. Since it was already factored in, it had no negative effect. Instead, the market has chosen to focus on some positive commentary by the Governor and pushed the indices up nicely from the lows. If we look at today’s price action and the rollover data which showed that the FPIs had a large index short positions as well as a net stock future short for the first time since Nov 2021, it is easy to conclude that today’s action is largely short covering by the FPIs mixed with some relief buying by local traders. Retail had large substantially larger long stock future position and I expect a lot of this was pending longs which will now act as an overhang as prices move up. So short covering from one set of players shall be met by long liquidation from another set. Net effect will be to reduce the overall position in the market. Hence expect market to turn neutral and range bound in the next week. Today’s longs should be cut at higher levels today and not carried over.
-
Over the last four sessions the Nifty has been confined to a falling channel at 16880- 6760. It should not be difficult to breakout out higher from this channel and if it does so, then we would be warned that the market is changing around in its intent. The gap zone of the week is at 17185-17300 and that will be the main resistance zone for any up moves. Shorting of 17000Ce and higher is seen in next weekly series. But on the monthly series, there is still large PE shorts at 500 point intervals down from 17000 and the PCR is 1.02. So bulls haven’t given up yet?
Reliance is not looking healthy unless it picks itself up immediately. ITC is still trading ok while Hind Lever is still quite positive. Hdfc twins are not in good shape right now. The Bajaj twins are trying to stay afloat. The IT majors are drifting as well. So all in all, the Nifty majors are in a bit of a struggle. Bearishness in Bank Nifty prevails as we continue to see Call shorts starting from 38000 strike. Again not much of puts added in weekly series and the Pcr is at 0.61, But here too picture shifts to put shorts when you check the monthly series. Pcr is 0.91 here.
BNF too is in a down channel with a top bound at 38150. Lets see what it does with that resistance and then decide. The big gap zone resistance is at 39500-39250 and that may remain formidable for now. Leading bank stocks are in poor shape. Hdfc Bk is looking at 1320 levels if it cracks down. Weakness in SBI can hurtle it towards 505-495. Icici Bk is the only one that looks like it may survive. So bank heavies not in favour as well.
Therefore to expect that something will suddenly come out of the blue to save the trends would be stupid. I would expect market to remain contained until around second week of October. Trading market with a down bias and stock specific nature shall be the play. -
AS we draw down to the monthly expiry, the down move seems to be kind of exhausting itself. We almost did a retest of yesterday bottoms and the Nifty went even trifle lower. Matters continue to look dicey for the balance hour. The high open was sold into so the sentiment overhang was still bearish but market could not be forced lower nor could it go higher. In that sense, the morning expectation that we would range was accurate. The daily charts in both Nifty and BNifty are negative and thus, the expected rally into tomorrow also becomes a bit of a question mark now.
-
Market wasa volatile yesterday. A low was made soon after the open and mild rally followed but towards the end prices got pressured again and finished near the lows. The fall happened towards the end and seems to have been engineered a bit. The news about BoE action had come during market time and the Pound has a high correlation to the Dow and therefore the chances of a rally in the Dow was quite high probability. Accordingly, today morning Sgx shows a gap up start. Some further long positions were let go and shorts reentered in the ending bearish session and these will be ripe for short squeeze today.
The Max pain has dropped sharply with all these activities to 16950-17000 zone in NF and to 38200 in BNF. Large call shorts now exist but tody is expiry and there is not much scope for them to get squeezed. The expected rally may therefore be seen tomorrow rather than today. So, after a gap up start, we may see position adjustments thru the day. With buying emerging at lower levels, larger players may be unwilling to short at lower levels. Too much hurdle to move higher will prevent rallies to persist. Hence, look for some ranging action. -
Here is a clue for today’s trading
Look for Nifty to make an intra day bottom before Bank Nifty. Nifty is expected to make a bottom in the first couple of hours but Bank Nifty may make a low only towards the last hour or so.
Lets see how this expectation turns out. So will be watching Nifty a lot more closely than Bank Nifty today.
To View all Updates please visit: Insights Page
C K Narayans Offerings
Research That Wins,
Service You Deserve
Dr. C K Narayan
Testimonials
I am annual subscriber of NeoTrader. I have opted for annual subscription because I am aware about skill set of Dr. C.K.Narayan. One of the key elements for Dr. C K Narayan is to make complex things very simple & can be easily implemented in real market conditions. I am in market since last ten years and have used various trading software but Neo trader is different because, It is not only scanner which gives output of set logics, it gives overview of market & meets requirements of day trader, Positional player as well as long term investment. I am using only positional; investment part of the application based on my requirement. Once again congratulation for entire NeoTrader team as i can understand quantum of intellectual effort put by the entire team to create this NEO software.
Dear NeoTrader Team, Thank you for Coming up with the Neo trader Software. It has made trading look really easy as everything required is available at a glance.The success ratio of the Trades is excellent as within 2 weeks I have recovered my Neo Trader annual subscription fees. Neo Trader Software is a Big Boon for All traders & Investors. My Special thanks to Dr. Narayan.
Neo trader gives you an overall picture of markets, stocks. It also tells story of short and long term views which helps you a lot to be in right trades at right time and support from team is like cherry on the top. My best pages are experts alerts n pivots view which gives good momentum trades for learning activities they have live markets timeline page for learning which can be referred for current market understanding.
Since last 15 days I was closely watching trades based on Neo trader signals, I am able to make around 5k since last2 days. Since I am not knowing much on technicals, I have exited early my positions. What I wanted to share is: Over a period with some more trainings & little bit more knowledge on technicals one can trade with Neo signals with better managing risk rewards. Thanks to Shabbir & Amit sir & to the whole team Special thanks to CKN sir for promoting good software.
Know What People
Have to Say About NeoTrader
Want to Skyrocket Your Investment Growth?
MumbaiRegd Address
Address: 14th floor,
1402 Vikas Centre,
Dr C G Rd, Chembur (E),
Mumbai, Maharashtra 400074
OUR LOCATIONWhere to find us
LINKSImportant Links
GET IN TOUCHSocial Media
SEBI REGISTRATION NO
Copyright by CK Narayan. All rights reserved.