NARROW OPTION BAND POINTS TO TREND RESOLUTION		10.05.25

NARROW OPTION BAND POINTS TO TREND RESOLUTION 10.05.25

By CKN Staff

July 9, 2025

We went thru a particularly dull time yesterday in the market. For about 4 hours, the Nifty moved in a range of 20 points! Then, in response to the sharp decline in Reliance (on the news of JIO Ipo being skipped), the index fell, only to move back up again. Since there was a lot of lateral consolidation moves in intra day charts, any kind of trend following indicator would have got triggered. No point in doing any post mortem of that.
The Cpr for today is almost the same today as yesterday, as is the option position. What is interesting is that barring the large OI at 25400 and 25600 strikes, there is not much of positions until either 25 or 26K. This means that the market will move big today if either of the band ends are broken. Given the lead up to today, I would still want to bet with an upward resolution above 25600. The daily CPR level for today will be exceeded above 25585 (futures) so might as well wait for it to cross 26K just to be sure.
India Vix has come down to near the lows from where, ideally, it should reverse. If it does, option premia will improve. They are quite low right now, so shorting may be for directional players and not for theta gainers. Take heed of that.

One of the rumours emerging in the market is about a possible introduction of fortnightly expiry options and discontinue the weekly. No idea what this will do, if it sees the light of day. Just passing on a rumour that I heard.

TCS kicks off earnings season today. There doesn’t seem any expectations built in. So, surprises may work here. Consensus is for soft numbers.
Among stocks commented upon in earlier letter, Ttan continued lower (by a small margin), Chola rallied (and nicely), Asian Paints moved up with a gap and has held that gap into the close. Tata Steel dipped a bit, as expected.
Continuing with the focus, Icici Pru seems to have revved up, perhaps on news of the proposed IPO of its Amc arm. Can be looked at as move seems to be just starting. Swing trades here. New age stock are doing well. Already flagged off Delhivery earlier. It continues to rise. Among others, Nykaa has launched a rise that can continue further. GMR Airports is seen reviving once again.
News led declines in stocks like Vedl, Reliance, IndusInd etc. may be looked upon to check for further weakness if any

  • Insight
    STOCK SPECIFIC MOVES TO CONTINUE 08.05.25

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