THE ROLLER COASTER TAKES ANOTHER ROLL!  11.04.25

THE ROLLER COASTER TAKES ANOTHER ROLL! 11.04.25

By Dr C K Narayan

April 10, 2025

And the market is taking yet another swing on this dizzying roller coaster! This man does the most unpredictable of them all. North Korea’s crazy leader was thought to be wonky but Trump is taking the cake! But we all have to remember that Trump is a shrewd businessman too and probably knows the end result of everything is doing. Cant put market manipulation past him at all, therefore!

Be that as it may, Gift Nifty is trading some 600 points higher and will open higher on Friday. What this will do in my view is remove he fear and the sting of this entire tariffs matter. Last week I had written that we will get over the matter very soon. It got into a pissing contest between the US and China and perhaps that is how this is going to end. Probably, at the end of 90 day pause, Trump will declare that he won (just like they did way back in the Viet Nam war) and life shall return to normal.

First ones to run for cover would be the call shorts (max at 22400 and then higher). Puts there are also high and shorts there would cover with glee and move higher. The dream of option sellers is that market opens higher, they short and then market slides slowly, giving them all a good chance to cover! Well, Trump is certainly providing some material for this dream!

At the start of the week I had done a video (see Charts and Beyond) where I said the weekly CPR at 23000-200 would be a resistance and I would think that would still exert its influence. Why? Because the basic tariff of 10% is still valid and it is the extra that was levied that has been put on hold. So, some uncertainty shall remain. Hence higher levels will see profit taking from those that bought plus give an exit for those who were long from earlier. So, plan that way.

Adding to the fuel would be the rate cut that happened. On a bullish day it gives an additional boost. Else, its impact was done with last week. But today it will be a factor.

I still say that trades must be confined, largely, to day trades. Carrying forward is a huge and needless risk. Maybe you will get lucky and get a gap in your favor (like on Monday perhaps) but that is just going to be a one off.

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