My last update, before I went on a vacation, was about two weeks ago. War clouds had gathered. But barring the single ay of weakness on 9th May, the attempt to create downtrends were left in the dust, almost immediately, what with the news of the ceasefire on 12th creating a solid upmove candle. But if one had expected a good trended move to emerge out of that, then, one is still awaiting it, some 12 sessions later! During which time the market has probably put you through a wringer, meaning, twisting and turning every which way.

When I wrote my last post back on the 7th, I was still not bearish- just stating that a call to book profits on the indices had been flashed. On that, the two major indices haven’t really done much. But stocks have been all over the place, driven by news flow and volumes. I guess this is how the balance couple of days of May are going to be. The monthly candle may finish hereabouts perhaps, but it is still seeming like a rally candle only, what with the rise struggling at 50% level of the long boady bearish candle of Oct24 offering resistance. Along with Gann angle lines as well.

In my last Charts and Beyond video done around the same date as the last post here, I had opined that the market (i.e. index) had issued a sell signal on a price and time match. Expectations were for a decline but the market cutting it short in a day or two showed that the bulls were still dominant in the market. Even a war scenario couldn’t help the bears to get their foot thru the door. In subsequent columns, writing in the NDTV Profit digital edition, I had stated as much, saying that if the market is not in a mood to go down, then neither should we and stick with the upside being suggested. Difference is that, it had to be played thru the stocks (carefully) rather than thru the indices. The Bank Nifty has been faring slightly better, though just a tad. People are used to much more of a zip in the moves of the BNF but for four weeks or so it has been churning around, although maintaining the high ground it has reached.

So, where does that leave us all as of today? At the same spot, with the same view, I am afraid. Which is, index play is stalled until something shows up on the macro front. Stocks are skirting around, offering an opportunity here to long and an opportunity to short there. One has to be quick to take advantage of such situations. So, not an easy choice. Difficult to sit back and say, let this phase pass, because, no one has a clear idea how long this will last. Q4 results were not bad so that is good, but Trump keeps shooting his mouth and that is bad. The war games is either on or it is not- we are not too clear on this. Everyone is saying his own thing- Pak, India, US…..who to believe?

Chart shown is monthly Nifty future. Clear breakout above the mid of long body candle and Gann angle resistance is required for upmoves to sustain. Momentum has to pick up and hold at higher levels and not fizzle out as it is happening right now. Until then, play this same game.