A very mixed week so far. We thought matters were settled on the Iran war front but apparently not. What will today bring? More of the same? Perhaps. The war shows no signs of settling but it seems like Iran may buckle soon as Israel is relentless and US is weighing in heavily in their favor .

Looking at the weekly chart, we still find that the momentum in BNF is holding out despite the disappointing trade during the week. See the attached chart. The RSI is still comfortably placed above 60 levels. Even if today’s trading is damp, it may still not spoil the picture. The NF picture is not so sanguine on the same ground- the RSI weekly is still struggling to cross 60 and that puts a question mark on its trend- even if it seemed like it was faring better compared to the BNF during the week. Price action intraday on Wed too showed the BNF faring better.

Puts were written and there may even have been some mild Call buying. In contrast, in Nifty we saw Call premium erosion as more shorts were piled on in the next series in strike ranges 24750-24850, indicating some aggression from Call writers. But it seems that much of the fresh writing happened yesterday. A strong resistance band has now formed above 24850 (three intra day tops made there on the charts). No evidence of put writing at all, so lower levels may not find buyers. But if the NF can hold itself above the 24780 levels (where three bottoms were made), and then rallies, then some brisk rally on short covering can emerge. There is some decent amount of OI for both calls and puts and the premium for the last day (weekly expiry) is slightly higher so we should be looking for activity in indices today.

So, after a few days of struggle, perhaps Bank Nifty may be coming back into the reckoning? Keep a watch.
Stocks are hits and misses across the board and changing everyday and so difficult to zero in on. Lack of consistent tailwind prevents technical signals from succeeding on a consistent basis. Remember I said a few days back that the market is back into day trading mode? So, you will have to, maybe, focus on day’s gainers and losers that may be carrying some sort of news triggers.