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BANKS SHOULD BE IN PLAY 21.04.25

A better start seems to be indicated. If it continues higher, it will create difficulties for traders. Now most people have swung around to buy declines again but if no declines, come what to do?
Join the fray is the only answer. Set a suitable stop on new trades and if that gets triggered, so be it. Already, most people have missed out on the rise because of its sharpness. If one is ready to do that, then Bank Nifty and the banking pack is the place. Pvt banks poised very well on their charts. Results over the weekend from Hdfc and Icici were good. Kotak has been poised for a rise (see earlier articles on this) and now SBI too is set to join. May futures in BNF has added positions even as shorts have been cut in April. What more is needed for the BNF to move? Upto 57K is new target for BNF with some rests in between.

If Banks do well, then Nifty will get enabled to move higher (after all, 32% weight in Nifty). But which sector to play? IT results are a bummer so far but stocks are tending to rally off the lows. Does that mean the guarded commentary and mixed numbers are being discounted by the market? 24th is a tech-heavy results day. So perhaps the sector may move only after that date once the market checks out results and commentaries. Autos are also seemingly shrugging off the impact of tariffs? Ditto Pharma stocks. But in the current context is resisting declines enough? Perhaps not. So, everyone is flocking to the only sector that seems to be somewhat ‘immune’ to tariff business (Banks and Financials) and hence that may be a all-in trade for individuals and funds.

Dollar is down. As is oil. US 10y bond yields are ranging. Our govt and RBI are in an accommodative mode and making growth oriented noises. Hence buy-sip scenarios will get supported.

Vix is coming down but is still elevated. So buying calls may be tough yet unless directional moves chips in once again. PCR is around 1 so no bias emerging from there. But OI changes favor shorting of Puts yet so there continued bullish bias is visible.

In sum, bullish bias for buying intra day dips. Banks favored for both stocks and index. Rest of the market should be stock specific. Use Neotrader to catch the moving candidates. WellSet Bull stocks on the program is the stocks to track.

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