6 weeks fall in a row, something not seen since 2020 and just 5% decline in prices? We have evidence why that has been so. The SIP flows have now increased to over 28000 cr in a month. It used to be 10-12k a few years ago. This deluge of money is what is what is stemming the declines wrought by FII selling. Pointedly, money flow into small and midcap funds and ETFs is ensuring widening of the holdings and its not just about the large caps any more.

The Nifty has been swivelling in 300+ moves over the last two months. This has got traders quite confused, because traders get comfortable when the move lasts a couple of days and move a few hundred points. But just as they are looking ahead to some trends, the moves turn and head in the other direction! This can be expected to continue. Have already discussed the way to approach it- get into trading mode and lock in profits when you see them and not play for multi days or weeks even if the news flow is good. Only exceptions are making it further.

Trump continues to blow hot and cold and so no point in looking there for any cues, because they may change tomorrow morning. See his flip-flop on the Intel chief. Totally unreliable, his words. Indices keep responding to those and so best to leave index trading to the option guys (who, reportedly, are not having a good time either) and stick to news based stocks.

But earnings season is about to run out and that may bring down triggers and we may be left with nothing else but to follow the flows that emerge out of global cues. Local cues are limited. Maybe markets will shift focus to those out of compulsion.

Small bit of short covering seen in FII index shorts (from 1.82 to 1.79 L contracts). Right now, we are happy to take anything that wears a bullish a look. But PCR jumped from oversold to neutral with yesterday’s rally. So odds are about even for today’s index trends.

Today’s camarilla value area lies between 24693-24562. Getting out of this range would qualify as a breakout for day trades. Weekly CPR is placed between 24611-21498. So we have some further definitions of a breakout now. Alternately, if one follows the dictates that we are in a downtrend in the short term and hence rallies are to be sold, then a rally to near 24650-700 should be used to short with a nearby stop. Same would hold good for Bank Nifty on rallies to near 55700.