Friday’s trading was most disappointing as the day gave away almost completely the dramatic gains made on Thursday. Before the bulls could even savor their victory of the day, the bears were back, mauling them back to the lows of the earlier day. This resulted in extending the decline to the sixth week in succession. But consider also that the total decline in this fall if just 5%. That doesn’t, yet, smack of any bear market stuff.

But the talk of buy the dip that one has being maintaining- because the higher trend was up- but that is not helping traders because the buys are not resulting in any good profits. I have also been maintaining, just because of this point, that you should close out trades when you see some profits.

FIIs are continuing their sales while DIIs ae continuing their buys. The latter have an excuse of being pressured into buys because SIPs are bringing funds into their coffers. But what is pressuring the FIIs into selling? I dont know. The net Index contract shorts have now moved to 1.82L and highest is around 2.09 lacs contract, back in March. One point that I would want to add here is that the highest position in Index contracts was way back in Sep 2016!Ever since that the positions have been declining and it made its low in Mar2025 and now this bottom too is coming in for a retest.

In addition, FII cash data also shows selling halted briefly in 2018-19 but resumed since 2020 and continues into today.

There are some other things afoot here. Reminds one of the old Ajit joke about liquid oxygen. Paraphrased, we will have to state that SIP market ko girne nahi deta aur FII ise badhne nahin deta!

People are getting scared about their SIPs. The point to remember here is that SIP should be done with your EXTRA money. So, that ought to continue. It is not something reserved for bull markets alone.

Checking the charts of top 12 weighted stocks of the Nifty, we find that most of them are in and around Gann support levels. Even the Nifty (24335)/BNF(55225) is not far away from such a support. So there is a chance of the market finding its feet here. But it is also equally probable that supports may cave in, in which case we may see deeper levels. Hence it is necessary to be very alert here.