All thru this decline the Vix was heading lower and hence one was not too worried. In this fall, the Vix has bounced to 12%. Vix is a gauge of Fear. One should therefore wonder, why has the fear component risen? Nothing overt seems to have happened? Of course, it is possible that the Vix may go back to drifting lower but it is always prudent to pay attention to changes in indicators.

Next, on our new proprietary indicator (NT Trender, which will be added to NeoTrader soon), we find the bullish line reverse itself on both NF and BNF. This signal comes after a long time. So, that is a change to take note of as well.
Third, and this is a smaller and more dynamic signal subject to quick changes, is the sharp reduction of short Puts. Tied to this piece of data would be the continued increase in FII index shorts, now at 1.64 Lac contracts.
So, this is disturbing my sense of confidence (complacence even!) about the trends. Will all these fade into the background if the Tariff trouble goes away? I don’t know. Will local factors prevail over global ones? I don’t know that either. This may prompt a question- well, what do you know, then? Answer is, not much. But knowing that I don’t know is probably better and that helps me follow the ONE THING that knows everything- the PRICE.
So, lets all watch the price and do its bidding. Right now, it seems to be saying that it is at a point of inflection. So, watch carefully before diving in anywhere