NO CLARITY IN TRENDS SEEN 05.05.25

NO CLARITY IN TRENDS SEEN 05.05.25

By Dr C K Narayan

May 4, 2025

Confusion continues to prevail. Indices remain up but not making further grounds in intra day trading allowing option sellers to benefit while the trended look would suggest that it is actually option buyers who ought to benefit! Maybe the new uncertainties created by Pahalgam incident is now overshadowing the receding concern with the Tariffs. Maybe the run of results so far has not been palatable enough? Difficult to put a finger on it.

Fact is that price are also not falling. Since they are up, not too many are complaining either. This is certainly a pickle because it doesn’t give clarity on what to do with confidence.


Chart shown today shows both indices, with the next week CPR drawn in. We can see that they are narrow and (b) they are just around the last prices. So, the market HAS to give it a charge to continue the upmove. It cannot idle, in which case, breaking below the CPR may occur. That should be the factor to watch- the ability and the willingness to move higher. If not seen, take long positions off and wait for fresh signals to emerge. That is the only course of action I can see. 24400/55100 may be kept as reference levels if values have to get tripped up.
Call shorts are larger, extending into higher strike. So, expecting resistance to upmoves yet. Largest Put short is at 24000, which is a good distance away, so players are giving some room for near term declines too, it seems. In BNF, put shorts of 55500 may already be squeezed some but expect buyers to make a stand near 55100, a price action plus option concentration level.

Lots of results this week, particularly from mid and smallcaps. So market could get busy reacting to them. Since market is at an inflexion point, do check your charts if you hold investments or consult your TA for advise. If making money, better to book some out. If things are even, then set a trailing stop. If holdings are still in loss, reevaluate to check whether to continue to hold or book some loss.

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