The open is going to be better, as being seen from higher GiftNifty levels. So, is the Trump effect done and over with? If the higher open sustains and the market builds on it, would certainly seem so. While we can all heave a relieved sigh at the open, we may have to wait till later in the day to see how well can it sustain.

As we near the RBI policy date, it will be the BNF that shall hold the key to trends. Having survived Monday’s pushes to bottoms, we now look for trading up to close the yawning gap above. Yesterday move was down into 61.8% of the recent rise and so, its level shall be the important stoploss level ahead. A move past 50k and an ability to hold above it will serve BNF well today. If above 50750 by 10 am, look for more gains. Else, consolidations. Above 50300 is the minimum move required to keep the recovery from yesterday low going. On the other hand, weakness below 49750 will not be encouraging.

Compared to the BNF, the NF was a lot weaker, breaking below the Mar 3 low. Trading above yesterday close would be a positive for attempts at gap filling. Given that we may open better, the potential is for 22700-800 zone as a target. However, if prices remain below 22190, I wouldn’t want to try any longs even of a trading nature. If the Nifty does make it towards the higher levels, then it would need to hold above 22350 levels subsequently to continue the attempt.

No point in rushing in. Let the dust settle on volatility.